Annual Index · April 2026
Nigeria Capacity Index

NCIx 2026

Measuring the State's Ability to Deliver

Nigeria does not lack policy.
It lacks execution.
Author Dr Hani Okoroafor
Publisher The Capacity Institute
Date April 2026
ISSN 3141-3668
Purchase the Report View the Results The Capacity State
NCIx 2026 — Nigeria Capacity Index, The Capacity Institute
0 /100 NCIx
Classification
Structurally Constrained
Execution Systems
ISSN: 3141-3668

"The central development problem is no longer knowing what to do. It is executing what is already known."

What is the NCIx?

An Evidence-Based Diagnosis of Nigeria's Execution Capacity

The Nigeria Capacity Index (NCIx) is an annual assessment published by The Capacity Institute. It measures the Nigerian state's ability to translate policy decisions into implemented outcomes — reliably, coherently, and at scale over time.

The NCIx is grounded in the intellectual framework of The Capacity State. It answers three critical questions: Where are we strong? Where are we weak? What should we do first?

It is not a ranking for its own sake. It is a diagnostic tool designed to translate evidence into a practical agenda for action — one that strengthens Nigeria's execution capacity and delivers real results for citizens.

"Diagnose. Understand. Reform. Deliver."

Execution Capacity is Defined As

The ability of the state to translate policy decisions into implemented outcomes reliably, coherently and at scale over time.

Three Foundational Dimensions

Reliability
Consistency of delivery — the ability to deliver what is promised, on time, to standard and with predictability.
Coherence
Alignment across institutions — the ability of institutions, policies and processes to work toward common priorities without contradiction.
Scalability
Sustained performance — the ability to deliver results across geographies, sectors and population groups, and to improve over time.
Headline Result

Nigeria's NCIx Composite Score

54.2 /100
Structurally Constrained Execution Systems

"Nigeria is not a collapsed system. It is a constrained one."

80–100
High-Capacity Systems
60–79
Moderately Effective Systems
40–59 ◀
Structurally Constrained Systems
<40
Low-Capacity Systems
NCIx 2026 scorecard showing Nigeria's composite score of 54.2/100 with key statistics
Pillar Results

NCIx Pillar Scores

# Pillar Score Performance Weight
1
Political Commitment
Clear priorities and policy direction
60.3/100
15%
5
Coordination & Alignment
Greatest constraint — fragmentation & weak alignment
44.8/100
25%
2
Administrative Capability
Workforce strengths, skills and incentive gaps
57.6/100
20%
3
Delivery Systems
Some functional systems; process complexity limits scale
50.1/100
25%
4
Feedback & Adaptation
Emerging data systems; weak learning culture
47.2/100
15%

Rank 1 = highest scoring pillar. No pillar scores above 65/100. All five pillars score below 65/100.

Bar chart of NCIx 2026 pillar scores: Execution Leadership 63.1, Strategic Planning 61.4, Performance and Accountability 55.7, Coordination 52.8, Resource Allocation 48.9, Institutional Learning 43.2
Global Comparative Context

How Nigeria Compares

Nigeria scores above several large economies but lags behind top performers. The difference is not in resources or talent — it is in execution.

Rwanda
71.3
Ghana
60.7
Nigeria
54.2
Kenya
52.6
India
48.9
Pakistan
39.8

NCIx Composite Score (0–100). Source: NCIx 2026, The Capacity Institute.

Execution-Relevant Indicators

Nigeria vs Peer Benchmarks

The gap between Nigeria's performance and peer medians reflects systemic execution constraints, not resource scarcity alone.

Indicator Nigeria Peer Median Gap Interpretation
Capital budget execution (%) 58% 82% −24pp Weak conversion of plans to spending
Average project delay 42M 18M +24M Significant delivery inefficiency
Power availability (MW per capita) 22 85 −63 Severe infrastructure constraint
Logistics cost (% of goods value) 35% 18% +17pp System inefficiency raising costs
Public service reliability index 48 70 −22 Inconsistent delivery to citizens

Source: NCIx 2026, The Capacity Institute. Table 1 — Execution-Relevant Indicators (Nigeria vs Benchmarks).

Reform Agenda

The Way Forward

The NCIx translates the diagnosis into a practical agenda for action — one that strengthens Nigeria's execution capacity and delivers real results for citizens.

01

Align on Priorities

Focus on what matters most. Concentrate institutional energy on a small number of high-impact delivery objectives with measurable targets.

02

Strengthen Coordination

Build alignment across actors. Address the greatest constraint — fragmentation between institutions — through deliberate coordination architecture.

03

Improve Systems and Processes

Simplify, standardise and enforce. Reduce bureaucratic friction and build operational discipline in delivery systems.

04

Use Data and Feedback

Learn, adapt and course-correct. Build real-time monitoring and feedback systems so institutions can detect and respond to failure early.

05

Deliver Results at Scale

Sustain impact and build public trust. Better execution builds legitimacy, strengthens the social contract, and accelerates development.

"A nation rises when systems work."

NCIx 2026 · The Capacity Institute

Intellectual Foundation

The NCIx is the annual empirical
accompaniment to The Capacity State

The NCIx applies the conceptual framework developed in Hani Okoroafor's foundational work to measure and track Nigeria's execution capacity year on year. The book provides the theory. The index provides the evidence. Together, they form the diagnostic and intellectual core of The Capacity Institute.

Explore The Capacity State

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Narrow the Gap.
Increase Impact.
Transform the Nation.

NCIx 2026 · Dr Hani Okoroafor · The Capacity Institute · Lagos · April 2026

Purchase the Report Request an NCIx Briefing

Okoroafor, H. (2026). Nigeria Capacity Index (NCIx) 2026: Measuring the State's Ability to Deliver. Lagos: The Capacity Institute. ISSN: 3141-3668.